Gators Find New, Equally Frustrating Way To Blow Final 4 Bid
I'm counting on the return of all but two players from this team, and one of those two is senior Erving Walker.
The other is freshman Bradley Beal, who is 50/50 on returning. One factor that he said would not weigh his decision, but must to some degree, to return was the most heartbreaking loss I have ever watched the Gator basketball team suffer- aside from maybe last year's season ending loss.
To end a college career that he has said on numerous occasions that he really enjoys on such a bitter note...
And boy, was it bitter. It felt like being forced to take the cinnamon challenge four or five times over, and washing your mouth out with soap after. Only then can you have water- as long as it's saltier than the Dead Sea.
If you're not a Gator fan, that pretty much sums it up, up to and including projectile vomiting all over inanimate objects foolish enough to get in your way.
Even without Beal (projected #4 in the NBA Draft), the Gators should have a pretty good team again next year. I assume Kenny Boynton and Patric Young (both mid to late second round projections) will stay. Incoming freshman Braxton Ogbueze and Michael Frazier should immediately see playing time, and guys like Erik Murphy, Michael Rosario and Scotty Wilbekin should all see their roles increase. If in fact Beal does return, the Gators will be loaded, a surefire preseason Final Four pick.
It still doesn't excuse the horrifying way in which the Gators lost.
Against Butler last year, the Gators controlled the game for 30 minutes- and then fell asleep and gave Butler all the loose balls, turned the ball over, got outrebounded, ran stupid plays for the wrong guy and allowed Butler to crawl back in it- and then win it. In any game, against any team, this is not good. In the NCAA Tournament against a legitimate team, this is really bad. In the later rounds, against good teams, this is horrendous. And in the Elite 8- 10 minutes away from a Final Four with seniors that have never been there, against a Butler team that makes its living by scrapping and fighting for all they're worth- despite clearly inferior talent- it's completely inexcusable.
At least against Louisville the Gators couldn't be accused of not trying, they just couldn't buy a bucket from a drunken, jobless salesman, and watched as Louisville got hot and beat the Gators at their own game- big shooting. Does this ring a bell?
"The team that frightens me the most is the 4 seed, Louisville, but the Gators wouldn't face them until the Elite 8. Like Marquette, they are a Big East team, but unlike Marquette, they are on a hot streak, coming off a conference tournament title. They clearly are not feeling the effects of fatigue that the rest of the league is. They also play like the Gators- relying heavily on the three- which means whoever does what they're comfortable with better will win. That could be a problem."
Yeah, pretty big problem that turned out to be.
But I cannot say I'm shocked, because that will happen from time to time with teams that rely on the three ball. I am a little surprised that it happened so suddenly and at such a critical stage in the game, but not shocked.
In any case, the Gators' magical run is over, and it's even more frustrating when you look at the Final Four field and realize it's a group the Gators definitely could play with- Kentucky (and before you say the Gators lost three straight times to them, remember the last one, a game in which Florida led the whole way), Ohio State (a team that had trouble with the Gators on their home court) and Kansas (a team that split with Missouri, who lost to Norfolk State, who the Gators routed). It's sad when you think about it, how close they've come now in two straight years.
But let's take a moment to reflect on the accomplishments of our head coach.
Billy Donovan has done something very few people are aware of- he's taken 4 teams to the Elite 8 in 7 years. That unofficially marks the Gators a powerhouse of college basketball, as if the back to back titles didn't (but to be fair, that was 5 years ago, and college sports is a what have you done for me lately world). The best part- there appears to be more on the way, assuming most of our team this year remains.
Since basketball season is over, let's turn our attention to baseball. If you haven't followed recently, I suggest you do. Here's a quick update: the Gator baseball team is currently #1 in the nation, and just partially erased the frustration the Gamecocks handed Florida in last year's national championship series sweep by taking the series 2-1 in Columbia. They've also swept Miami and Vanderbilt, and they knocked off FSU in Gainesville. Part 2 of that series is tomorrow on a neutral field in Jacksonville, a game the Gators need to win to maintain the #1 ranking (and of course, we'll take dominance over the Seminoles in any sport we can get, as we will with Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Miami).
Oh, and before I sign off, remember the troll? Remember how he wanted to fire Jeremy Foley? Yeah, about that... the Gators have a chance to claim a national championship in each of the big 3 sports in 6 years.
Gators Crush Virginia, NSU to advance to Sweet 16
Casey Prather was the story against Virginia.
Reality setting in was the story against Norfolk State.
That was the only difference as Florida crushed both schools in relatively easy fashion, after struggling for the first few minutes against both.
Against UVA, the Gators had some problems early adjusting to the Cavs' pack line (collapsing on the ball handler) defense. Then Prather started to heat up, and Florida pulled away early in the second half.
Against Norfolk State, both teams started out slowly, until Kenny Boynton scored. That triggered a 25 point scoring streak, a swirling torrent of misery and frustration for NSU and the game was over halfway through the run.
The only concern I have was that the level of competition will be much higher when the Gators face Marquette, a consistent top 15 team throughout the year. Neither Virginia nor NSU have the offensive firepower that the Golden Eagles do, which all sets up nicely as a mano-a-mano battle between Marquette's Darius Johnson Odom and Florida's Kenny Boynton.
Aside from maybe Eli Carter of Rutgers, Florida hasn't faced any player this explosive and underrated all year. Obviously, Marquette is better than Rutgers, but they still don't get the ink in the paper that traditional powers Kentucky, Kansas, or North Carolina get. Anthony Davis, Brandon Triche, Thomas Robinson and Jared Sullinger are all more dominating individual players than Johnson Odom, but the Gators- and the college hoops world- all knew about him because of all the publicity they get.
It's that medium, that hybrid, that makes him so dangerous. He's better than Eli Carter but he's more known than him, yet he's not at the level of Robinson, Davis, Triche or Sullinger and he's less hyped.
Luckily, that works both ways. I'm not sure how many people outside the SEC know about Kenny Boynton or even all SEC pick Bradley Beal. Florida's whole team is underrated, as their last month of the year dulled everybody's view of them. Certainly the selection commitee.
In any case, Florida should be happy to be here (but not too happy to just sit back, relax, and let Marquette win, obviously). I'm not sure how many other people realize it, but Florida has slowly risen in the prestige rankings of college hoops under Billy Donovan. Now, Florida is only a rung down from the top class of college basketball, which features Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, and UCLA. Today, Florida is in the same class as Kansas, Syracuse, Michigan State and Ohio State. This is the Gators' 4th trip to the Sweet 16 in the past 7 years, something not many other schools can claim. A win on Thursday would make it 4 Elite 8 appearances in 7 years, and even fewer schools can say they've done that. Even for the most talented teams, Final 4's are extremely difficult to get to, and Florida has made 4 of them since 1994.
So, no, Florida is not at the top yet. There are a few schools that have topped the achievements of Billy Donovan (and Norman Sloan, the only other UF coach to get us to the Final 4). A win Thursday, and again on Saturday, could launch the Gators into that conversation of one of the most prestigious schools in the nation.
Dunbar, Bostic Tabbed Number 1 For Respective Units
One of Reggie Nelson's lasting images as a Gator was picking off John Parker Wilson and taking it 70 yards to the house to seal the 28-13 win over Alabama in 2006- and had dozens of other big time pass breakups in his final year at Florida.
Of course, Percy Harvin was a human highlight reel during his time at Florida, but especially in his last two years when he got more touches.
For two years, Janoris Jenkins locked down on some of the best young receivers (or future receivers) in the NFL, such as Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon LaFell, and AJ Green.
Last year, Chris Rainey was unquestionably the Gators most explosive player, consistently breaking tackles and turning nothing into something.
What do all these guys have in common?
They all wore the number 1 on their jerseys once they really matured into excellent players.
Or, in some cases, when the coaches thought they needed to provide some spark in a player to make them really break out the way they envisioned when they recruited them.
Since I really started following Gator football at the rate I do now in 2006, it's worked every time.
Wideout Quinton Dunbar and linebacker Jonathan Bostic have been issued number 1 for offense and defense, respectively. Issuing number 1 for somebody on the Gators (and I'm sure for a bunch of other teams too) is similar to naming the player captain. It means the coach has high expectations or high trust in the player, and usually both. The difference between an actual captain and somebody that wears 1 is the physical ability of the player wearing 1 (obviously, exceptions are made for guys like Tim Tebow or Joe Haden).
Captains usually are appointed for leadership reasons- going the extra set of reps in the weight room, on the practice field, or encouraging the teammate that just missed a tackle or fumbled the ball away. Sure, Tebow was a beast, but if he had a poor attitude he might not have been named captain. The number 1 is given out to players that have tremendous physical ability AND is willing to go that extra mile to get the absolute most he can out of his talent.
But numbers are issued in spring practice (at least with Will Muschamp they are), and he has basically sent a message to his team that Dunbar and Bostic are going to lead by example and that he expects greatness out of both of them.
Credit Urban Meyer for this. This was his idea. Muschamp merely retained it as part of his winning formula- give number 1 to guys who you really have faith in.
Just like the guys before Dunbar and Bostic, these two have shown flashes of immense talent, but (especially for Dunbar) these moments have been few and far between.
Something that might help Dunbar get more action is the agreement of former Gator wide receiver Omarious Hines to play running back (and wear number 20) in his senior season. This is part of Brent Pease's new offense- crazy packages that confuse defenses to the point of busted assignments- but I'll get into that tomorrow. Hines switching positions clears the way for Dunbar to shine alongside Andre Debose, who has already proven to be not only a great receiver, but a legitimate threat to score from anywhere on the field if you mess around. And even if you don't mess around, he might still score.
As for Bostic, he has actually proven himself already. He co-anchored a defense that finished in the top 10 in the nation. Unfortunately for Florida, the offense sucked so much that holding Auburn, Georgia, FSU and South Carolina to 79 combined points ultimately meant nothing. With an offense, and wins in those four games, Florida is 10-2, in Atlanta, and Bostic gets some recognition.
But that's why these guys were given #1 anyway- to prove their worth.
And hopefully their worth will guide the Gators back to glory.
Muschamp seems to think that's exactly what will happen.
So let's join him.
Muschamp Is Doing Better Than 7-6 Record Suggests
Check out my new video. It should show you what I'm about to tell you.
I'm not sure how much you guys have followed football recruiting lately. I haven't a whole lot myself.
Credit Will Muschamp and his staff for that.
What's come to be known by some as Texas style recruiting is paying off in spades for Florida.
With each passing year, more and more teams do it, but Urban Meyer never really did quite like Muschamp, Saban, Mack Brown, or Bob Stoops.
In short, Texas style recruiting means hooking (no pun intended) kids early in the recruiting process, then holding onto them. This is a win win for everybody involved, even for the teams the kid didn't commit to, because usually they will not waste their time on the already committed recruit that they could use on an equally valuable, uncommitted recruit. The only loser is ESPNU, because signing day won't mean anything if everybody already knows where they're going. They may get one or two surprising flips, like Dante Fowler but they can't expect much more.
Most kids love to get the recruiting process over with early. Even the ones with big heads who love to play with the media and coaches get tired of it pretty quickly. It's really annoying after awhile. I had enough of it after a few weeks- and the schools that came after me were mainly DIII. I can imagine how much worse it is for football at the premiere level of DI.
The great thing is, Will Muschamp likes to get his kids to commit early. And when most recruits like to oblige him with early commitments, it's game over- because both sides are happy (I'm assuming the kid likes UF enough to play there).
Last year, however, Urban Meyer left us in a bad state. I've gotten over some of my anger toward Meyer- if he can get a job elsewhere- let him. Besides, his spread offense had run its course. It's not like there was any sign of promise that more greatness was coming after 2010, aside from the #1 recruiting class he pulled in for the 2010 class- and a bunch of those guys are gone anyway.
I still blame Addazio for this. He was the one who ran the team the entire 2009 offseason, meaning the recruiting class as well. While the #1 2010 class remained firm, future classes fell hard. Big time recruits, such as top running back Mike Bellamy, were scared off by the disgraceful offense he put out. Losing recruits means an ever so slight loss of prestige for future classes. It puts the thought in future recruits' heads, "There must be something better about Clemson than Florida."
So for Addazio (and Meyer) to be LOSING recruits during the time that more and more teams are GETTING them.... you can finish the sentence.
The other really destructive move Addazio made was crushing the confidence of John Brantley. Forget the 2011 season. He and Meyer share the blame for this one. Had Florida installed an offense that fit Brantley's style, who knows, he might have slung bullets everywhere en route to a Heisman. Is that realistic? Probably not. But the point is, nobody knows. That nightmare 2010 immediately segued into even greater embarrassment in 2011. Brantley had zero confidence heading into the season, and as a result flopped. Sure, go ahead and blame some of this on Charlie Weis, but remember his track record that had Gator fans giddy with joy.
For those of you that don't remember how talented Brantley appeared to be, refresh your memory here.
Neither the poor (by Gator standards; #13 in the nation isn't exactly chopped liver) recruiting class nor Brantley's horrible senior year can be blamed on Muschamp, or even Weis.
Nope, the blame lies on Meyer and Addazio. They were the head coaches from the end of the 2009 season to the end of the 2010 season- the 365 day period where Gator football fell off the top of the mountain. In order to get back up, Will Muschamp knew he had to drop back down another few feet, find a new, different route and take that one back up.
So Gators and haters alike, watch out for a return to the top by the Gators. A national championship appears to be at least a year away, but 10 wins (bowl game included) and a trip to Atlanta are very realistic for 2012.
Yes, Muschamp has absolutely earned that extension, if that's what you're wondering.
Committee Shamelessly Screws Gators, Yet Gives Them Hope
Really?
You give Murray State (a midmajor with an unimpressive resume aside from the 30-1 record) a 6, Florida State (who we beat by ~20 with almost identical records) a 3, and you give Florida a 7?
Come on now.
Maybe this is compensation to the Gatorhater nation for seeding UF as the #2 team in the South a year ago.
I thought the NCAA Selection Committee wasn't supposed to work that way....
But whatever, it did, and the Gators need to deal with it.
In fact, the sooner Gator Nation accepts this seemingly unfair fate, the sooner we can realize just how lucky we are.
We didn't draw a single dominant team in our region, just a bunch of average, run of the mill teams and a couple of good but not great teams. Florida falls under that good but not great label, which means they have as much of a shot at the Final Four as anybody in the West region.
A number 1 seed is supposed to be an aura of invincibility, royalty and dominance. A number 2 seed conveys the message of "we're the only ones that have a shot at taking down #1. So get out of the way and let us have our shot." In other words, equal condescendance over early round opponents. Number 3 represents the just-below kingship status, and number 4 represents a dark horse Final Four candidate.
That's how the Committee wants it to look.
The #1 seed in the West (Michigan State) was up for grabs the entire last few weeks. The Spartans beat Ohio State- the same Buckeyes the Gators played tough til the very end on the Bucks' home floor- for the Big 10 title and that final #1 seed. But Sparty's 27-7 record, including embarrassing losses to Northwestern and Illinois, raises some questions about just how dominant they really are, especially when fellow #1 seeds Syracuse (East) and Kentucky (South) are a combined 63-4. Even the third #1 seed, North Carolina, was 29-5, including a blowout win on a jet carrier ship over... Michigan State. The Spartans don't particularly impress as the #1.
Missouri, the Gators's future SEC East (for football, anyway) rival, is the #2. They appear slightly more impressive than MSU. At least they won their conference. They are 30-4, but their schedule- and three of their losses- were humiliating. A sweep at the hands of Kansas State paired with an inexplicable loss to Oklahoma State makes their upset chances real. They're certainly beatable- and the Gators wouldn't have to wait long to find out. All they have to do is beat UVA, and barring a first round shocker at the hands of Norfolk State, the Gators and the third set of Tigers in the SEC will square off.
Marquette is the 3 seed, and they would be a problem for the Gators on a good day. The only thing wrong with that from their perspective is that a good day against the Gators has to mean that Florida is having a bad day from beyond the arc. For Florida, it's great. Marquette is a great team, no doubt- but they've been beaten up all year with an admittedly grueling Big East schedule. Big East teams generally don't do well in the Big Dance- they couldn't put a single team in the finals for 7 years before last year.
The team that frightens me the most is the 4 seed, Louisville, but the Gators wouldn't face them until the Elite 8. Like Marquette, they are a Big East team, but unlike Marquette, they are on a hot streak, coming off a conference tournament title. They clearly are not feeling the effects of fatigue that the rest of the league is. They also play like the Gators- relying heavily on the three- which means whoever does what they're comfortable with better will win. That could be a problem.
But forget that for now. It's all irrelevant right now because if Florida loses to Virginia they won't be playing any of these teams.
Virginia is another good, but not great team that sort of slipped off as the season progressed. It's just so hard to say what will happen against them because the Gators don't really have a backup plan in place if their threes don't fall. Patric Young will not be able to take on the whole UVA team.
There's no in depth analysis needed here. No detailed projections, keys or secrets. It's all quite simple. Does Florida make their threes at a clip of at least 1/3, and do they rebound at least half of their misses?
If yes, then bring it, Mizzou. Walker, Boynton, Murphy and Beal have a surprise in store for Pressey and co.
If not, then there's always next year...
Despite Struggles, Florida Can Be Dangerous Come March Madness
First, I'd like to apologize for being gone so long.
Second, I'd like to say that I think- and hope- this time I'm back for good.
Third, I'd like to express my utter disgust for the Gator basketball team.
Fourth, I'd like to say that they have as much of a chance of winning the national championship as anybody.
That's right. The 9 loss Gators are as erratic as anybody in the country, yet due to the current system, they still have a shot at the crystal basketball.
The NCAA tournament allows 68 teams in the field. 25 of those go to conference tournament champions (or in the case of the Ivy League, the regular season champion), leaving 43 at large bids. Personally, I believe it's disgraceful to give South Dakota State the same mathematical chance of winning it all as Kentucky (unless they're one of the last 4 in and have to play that extra play in game... but still), but that's not the point.
Barring a trip to conference tournament championship (which is quite unlikely since the Gators would probably face Kentucky in the semifinals), the Gators will enter the Big Dance on a Big Cold Streak. Yes, even colder than the handshake between Meyer and Richt following the 2008 Cocktail Party. Losses to Georgia, Vandy and probably Kentucky twice in the last 5 games is not what Billy Donovan wants to see heading into a bad draw in the Dance.
Yet thanks to the NCAA's idea to give each conference champion and some average big conference teams a bid, Florida will probably face one of them unless they really tank and lose to Alabama/South Carolina. The Gators appear to be a low 4 seed or a high 5 seed right now, meaning they'll face either the best mid-major champion or the worst power conference team in the tournament. That's great news for Florida, since very few of those teams actually have the speed and athleticism to play defense. Heart, guts and pride, yes, but not the physical ability to blanket Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton beyond the arc... which leads me to my next point.
The SEC tournament doesn't mean anything for Florida. They could lose by 50 to Kentucky and it won't do anything. It might lower the seed, but that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.
The way the Gators play, either they make their threes or they don't. When they do, they can beat FSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State- all NCAA tournament bound teams- and can hang with Syracuse, Ohio State and Kentucky. When they don't, they lose to Rutgers, Georgia and Tennessee- all teams that are currently out of the 68 team field.
It's really that simple. Even if Patric Young is having a great game, the Gators will still lose if they don't hit their threes. He eclipsed 20 points against Kentucky, and the Gators trailed 46-44 midway in the second half. Then the Gators started missing, and Kentucky opened up the floodgates.
I don't really like this style of basketball. I like to mix it up and get the big guys the ball inside sometimes. Patric Young is fully capable of scoring 40 points a game if he was the featured part of the offense and 30 if he was as much of a contributor as the three point shooters. It cost the Gators a trip to the Final 4 last year, and if the Gators go cold like they did against Rutgers or Georgia then they can expect an early upset.
However, this is the style of play the Gators have now, and when it works, it is very frightening to play against. I can easily see the Gators make a Final 4 run, but of course, in the NCAA tournament, it's one game at a time. So it's going to start with that gritty but woefully inadequate defensively 12-13 seed.
Predicting when the Gators will make their threes is as perilous a way to make a living as exists in North America. I really feel bad for Vegas bookies who have to set lines for this game. However, one way you can have some confidence about their three shooting is if you know they have confidence. A good night shooting threes plus win in your back pocket just a couple of days ago would be a good sign for the round of 32- at least going into the game.
In other words, if the Gators shoot well in the first round, there's a good chance they will have confidence to at least begin the game in the second round against a better opponent. Confidence, aside from proper technique and focus, is the key to making threes. By this line of thinking, if the Gators shoot well in the first game, they're going to the Sweet 16.
Remember, the prototypical first round 12 seed opponent gets to the Dance on hustle, pride, and determination- not athleticism and talent. That makes Florida a horrendous nightmare of a matchup for them- because they can't get in front of the three point shooters to contest and alter the shot. Even if they somehow do get in front of Walker or Boynton, they have the speed to flash past them and either get a bunny layup or kick it out to another (and now wide open) three point shooter.
The main way upsets happen in the Dance is if the underdog forces the favorite to play the type of game that suits the underdog, hang close and win the close game. The only other way (more likely for a team like Florida) is if a team literally misses all their open shots. So if Walker, Boynton, Beal and Murphy combine to go 2 for 30 from three point land, then yes, the Gators could lose to Seton Hall or Western Kentucky.
But let's say that horrible above scenario doesn't happen. The Gators get a lot of open threes and make a solid percentage of them- say a third. Patric Young can grunt out 15 points and keep the opponent honest. Now the Gators have a winning streak, and more confidence. You would have to take that result as a Gator fan heading into the second round. That's really all Gator fans can ask for.
Once the Gators are on a roll, they're hard to stop. They've had multiple long winning streaks this year, and against a good team here and there.
It would be nice if they won the SEC tournament. But I would be happy if they just played well and limited the turnovers, got the majorty of rebounds... and see them taking and making threes with confidence.
Which they've done against some of the best teams in the nation.
One more thing I want to touch on- there's no home court advantage in the Dance. Sure, the sites might be closer to some teams than others, but the floor won't be painted one team's colors with a huge logo on midcourt. Each school gets an equal number of tickets to start with, and while some might be sold to other team's fans, the most uneven the fans could ever really be is 70-30, and only for first/second round games for the top two seeds. The only court that matters is neutral and heading into the SEC tournament, the Gators are 1-0 on neutral courts.
Oh, and by the way, seven of Florida's nine losses were away games.
My prediction?
Level up the site, pack your bags, we're going to the Sweet 16.
And if we can hit our threes there, regardless of who we play, maybe a little further.
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