Gators Draft Recap: Reality vs. Mock Draft Analysts
Tuesday, May 5, 2015 | Football, Scott Carter
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – I enjoy the NFL Draft, but I'm not a draftnik. Same with National Signing Day. I follow recruiting closely when commitments and speculation become official rather than the daily whims of 17- and 18-year-olds.
For true draftniks nothing compares to the months between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft. More and more websites devote space and resources to draft projections every year. Seems like everyone and their Uncle Bill have a mock draft posted on their blog.
Still, despite the endless cycle of analysis and regurgitation of that analysis, each year the draft proves how much of a gap there is between the experts and the NFL personnel making the picks.
This year's draft proved no exception. In fact, all you have to do is review the eight Gators selected. Florida's eight picks led the Southeastern Conference and gave Florida 20 players selected in the last three years.
Some projections were spot on; most were not. That's the unpredictability of the draft.
Here is a review of reality vs. mock draft projections:
*****
DANTE FOWLER JR., DL
Taken with the third overall pick in the first round by Jacksonville, Fowler was an easy call by the time the draft rolled around. Nearly all the major draft pundits had him as a top-10 pick. The NFL Network's Mike Mayock was his most vocal supporter in the months leading up to the draft. Mayock had Fowler going third overall to the Jags weeks before the draft, which prompted others to move Fowler above highly touted defensive linemen available such as USC's Leonard Williams and Clemson's Vic Beasley.
Mock Drafters' Grade: A
*****
D.J. HUMPHRIES, OL
Humphries left school early despite being told to stay in school by the NFL Draft Advisory Board. D.J. knew best. Humphries impressed NFL personnel at the combine in February and his stock soared from there. By the time Thursday's first round started, most of the mock drafters had Humphries as a first-round pick, with multiple NFL.com mock drafts predicting Humphries to the Cardinals at No. 24. Well, he went 24th overall to the Cardinals, slightly above where Humphries was ranked among ESPN scouting guru Todd McShay's top 300 prospects (32nd) or NFLDraftScout.com's list of prospects (36th).
Mock Drafters' Grade: A
*****
CHAZ GREEN, OL
Green was the third player off the board for the Gators, selected in the third round (91st overall) by Dallas. Green did not receive a lot of publicity leading up to the draft and most projections had him a mid-round pick at best. NFLDraftScout.com rated Green as the 191st prospect available, and McShay ranked Green 133rd overall. The Cowboys clearly thought much higher of the 6-foot-4, 315-pound Green, who has the potential to develop into a starting right tackle in the NFL.
Mock Drafters' Grade: C-
*****
MATT JONES, RB
The depth at running back was deep this year with Georgia's Todd Gurley and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon considered the top backs available. Jones was projected by most analysts as a mid-round pick. However, the Redskins saw him as a perfect complement to starter Alfred Morris and selected Jones with the 95th overall pick in the third round. McShay ranked Jones the 135th-best prospect in the draft and NFLDraftScout.com had him ranked 154th. The Redskins viewed him in much higher regard.
Mock Drafters' Grade: C-
*****
MAX GARCIA, OL
The versatile Garcia played tackle and guard his first season at UF in 2013, and then moved to center as a senior and anchored an offensive line that had four players get drafted. Garcia was drafted by Denver in the fourth round as the 133rd overall selection. He was a mid-round pick on most mock drafts and McShay pegged him as the 132nd-ranked prospect in the draft, so he was spot on. NFLDraftScout.com wasn't as high on Garcia, ranking him No. 227 prior to the draft. Overall, Garcia went about where most expected and gives the Broncos a high-character player to develop.
Mock Drafters' Grade: A
*****
NEIRON BALL, LB
Ball was under the radar heading into the draft after suffering a season-ending knee injury late in his senior season. However, Ball performed well at UF's Pro Day last month and appeared in excellent condition. The Raiders obviously saw something they liked, taking Ball in the fifth round with the 161st overall pick. That is 117 spots higher than where McShay ranked Ball and more than 220 spots higher than where Ball was ranked by NFLDraftScout.com. If Ball can stay healthy, Oakland got a player with a lot of untapped potential waiting to make an impact.
Mock Drafters' Grade: F
*****
ANDRE DEBOSE, WR
Debose never lived up to expectations at Florida due to injuries and his lack of development as a go-to receiver. However, Debose made his mark as a kickoff and punt returner and that was enough for the Raiders to take a chance in the seventh round, selecting Debose with the 221st overall pick. Few expected Debose to get drafted. Most analysts viewed him as a player who would be invited to a minicamp or signed as an undrafted free agent, hence he was not in McShay's top 300 draft prospects and ranked – are you ready – 727th on NFLDraftScout.com's list of prospects. If Debose succeeds in the NFL, the Raiders will look like geniuses. If he doesn't, the rest of the league can say “we told you so.”
Mock Drafters' Grade: N/A
*****
TRENTON BROWN, OL
The 6-foot-8, 355-pound Brown has the kind of size that NFL scouts can't ignore. A former standout basketball player in high school, Brown continues to develop as a football player. Still, the 49ers used their seventh-round pick (244th overall) on Brown. Prior to the draft most expected Brown to be a mid- to late-round pick. McShay rated him the 207th-best prospect available and NFLDraftScout.com pegged Brown No. 241. In the end, he was picked where the majority of projections had him.
Mock Drafters' Grade: B+
