Florida Gators

Florida at Mississippi State

 
* When: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
* Where: Humphrey Coliseum / Starkville, Miss.
* Records: Florida (10-8, 3-3) / Opponent (12-6, 1-5)
* TV: ESPN (Paul Sunderland and Joe Kleine)
* Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD (Sean Kelley and Lee Humphrey)

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Projected Starters

Florida	Position	Height / Weight	Class	Statistics
Alex Fudge	F	6-7 / 240	Sophomore	7.5 pts / 5.2 reb
Colin Castleton	F	6-11 / 231	5th-Senior	14.9 pts / 8.1 reb / 3.2 blk
Will Richard	G	6-5 / 206	Sophomore	10.1 pts / 4.3 reb
Myreon Jones	G	6-3 / 177	5th-Senior	4.8 pts / 2.4 reb
Kyle Lofton	G	6-3 / 188	5th-Senior	8.8 pts / 2.4 reb / 3.0 ast

Mississippi State	Position	Height / Weight	Class	Statistics
D.J. Jeffries	F	6-7 / 215	Junior	9.3 pts / 6.2 reb
Tolu Smith	F	6-11 / 245	Senior	13.8 pts / 7.9 reb
Cameron Matthews	G	6-7 / 225	Senior	6.4 pts / 5.1 reb
Eric Reed	G	6-2 / 200	Senior	5.6 pts / 2.6 reb
Dashawn Davis	G	6-2 / 195	Senior	8.1 pts / 1.7 reb

The Breakdown

Setup / Series / Last Meeting

Florida and Mississippi State face off in Saturday's Southeastern Conference nightcap. The Gators, seeking their third true road win, had a season-best three-game winning snapped Wednesday in a 54-52 loss at Texas A&M, a game they played from behind throughout following a disastrous first-half shooting performance, only to fall short in the final seconds. The Bulldogs, who won their first 11 games of the season and ascended to No. 15 in the Associated Press rankings, have dropped six of seven and sit in a four-way tie (with LSU, Ole Miss and Arkansas) for last place in the league standings. Their last outing was a Tuesday defeat at ninth-ranked Tennessee, where they were held to 33-percent shooting by the nation's No. 1-rated defense. ... For UF, the game represents a Quadrant 1 opportunity, according to NCAA Evaluation Tool metrics, as MSU sits at No. 56 and well within the Top-75 Q1 threshold for a true road game. ... Florida leads the all-time series 66-52, having broken State's three-game winning streak in their last meeting. The Bulldogs came to Gainesville on Jan. 19, 2022, as the Gators were without injured forward Colin Castleton (shoulder), and a handful of guys stepped up to fashion an 80-72 victory. Fifth-year forward Anthony Duruji scored a career-high 22 points, including 18 in the second half, plus five steals, with fellow fifth-year and point guard Tyree Appleby tossing in 17 points and five assists to lead a second-half comeback from eight down with just over nine minutes to go. Using a 2-2-1 press that completely flustered the Bulldogs, the Gators finished the game on a 23-8 run, keyed by a sequence of a mid-court steal and "and-1" finish by Duruji, followed by a 3-pointer from freshman guard Kowacie Reeves (career-best 14 points) to send the home crowd into a tizzy. Fifth-year guard Phlandrous Fleming Jr. had 10 points, five assists and three rebounds. ... UF has lost two straight in Starkville, with the Gators' last win there coming in 2017. 

Tale of the Tape

Florida	Statistics	Mississippi State
72.9	Scoring	65.3
.440	Field-goal percentage	.405
.330	3-point percentage	.287
65.7	Scoring defense	58.2
.400	Field-goal percentage defense	.389
.317	3-point percentage defense	.317
44th	KenPom.com overall ranking	59th
12th	KenPom.com offensive efficiency	169th
13th	KenPom.com defensive efficiency	9th
66th	KenPom.com adjusted tempo	317th
52nd	NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking	58th
14th	Overall strength of schedule ranking	75th

Team Snapshots

The Gators

They've been one of the best defensive teams in the country since the start of the SEC season, holding five of their first six opponents to under 40 percent, with the lone outlier a 41.7-percenter from Missouri last weekend in a game the Gators won. That's great and certainly something to hang a hat on, but Florida has undermined that defense with severe shooting woes

that usually manifest themselves in a single half. Take Wednesday night, for example. Better yet, don't. UF would love to forget about making just two of 26 shots from the floor through the first 20 minutes at A&M, especially considering the team fought back immediately out of the locker rom and was in the game the entire second half, three times closing within two points, once within one. Coach Todd Golden had to file it away with some other frustrating halves and an inability to shoot the ball, particularly from the 3-point line. The date with the Bulldogs, though, will pit two teams with similar identities, as far as offensive struggles and elite defenses with a rim protector. ... The game will be Golden's fourth SEC outing of the last five pitting him against another coach in his first season at a league school. Golden is 3-0 in those games, with a fifth coming next week against South Carolina. ... Last weekend, Colin Castleton posted a line score of points/rebounds/assists/steals/blocks unmatched by a SEC player since LSU's Ben Simmons in 2016. At A&M, he turned in a line score of points/rebounds/blocks not seen since Kentucky's Anthony Davis in his team's NCAA championship 2012 season. Now what? Castleton is playing like a first-team All-SEC performer and continues to carry the team on both ends of the floor, but could use a little help on the perimeter. ... What to make of backup wing Kowacie Reeves, who remains the team's No. 3 scorer despite going just 2-for-28 from the 3-point line (7.1 percent) in SEC play. Don't the law of averages eventually have kick in? His career percentage is 31.0. ... Guard Myreon Jones got his first start of the season at A&M and joined Castleton as the lone UF player in double-figure scoring with 10 points. He's averaging 9.7 over the last four games (nearly double his season's average) and continues to make winning plays and good decisions with the ball. ... Guard Will Richard looked to be coming on offensively, but took something of a step back in missing six of eight shots and four of five 3s. ... Point guard Kyle Lofton has gone seven straight games without getting more than three assists and has just two over the last three games, yet the UF offense has looked as in-sync as it has all season. Can't get assists without making shots, right? ... Forward Alex Fudge had seven points and eight boards at A&M, but was 2-for-11 from the floor and 1-for-7 at the rim, with a couple misses at critical junctures in the second hald. His coaches keep telling him to quit messing around and dunk the basketball. ... Freshman guard Riley Kugel hit a couple huge 3s in the second half Wednesday (and also missed an incomprehensible and wide-open bunny in the first half, adding to UF's frustrations) and has worked his percentages up to 43.0 overall and 39.3 from deep. Save the Missouri game, when he turned the ball five times (all in the first half), he's done much, much better protecting the ball, with just a single giveaway last game and no more than two in his other three league outings. 

The Bulldogs

It's their first season under Coach Chris Jans, who came from New Mexico after posting a 122-32 record, with three NCAA Tournament appearances, including a first-round victory last year. The Aggies won four regular-season Western Athletic Conference titles and three postseason tournaments during Jans' time. ... State opened the season with 11 straight wins, with two high-

quality wins over Marquette and Utah to capture the Fort Myers Tip-Off Classic. In their final game before starting league play, however, the Bulldogs were beaten by Drake in a semi-neutral site date at Omaha, Neb., then went into their tailspin. To be fair, four of their five SEC losses have come against three of the league's power teams in Alabama, Auburn and twice to Tennessee. ... MSU used a mostly light non-conference slate to roll up a nice record and some impressive metrics, especially on defense, but in six SEC games the Bulldogs have allowed 45-percent shooting overall and 38 from the 3-point line. Offensively, they've shot just 36 percent from the floor and 25 from distance. ... Forward Tolu Smith has been one of the biggest and most consistent low-post players in the SEC since transferring into the league from Western Kentucky in 2020. He's shooting 57 percent on the season, but like his teammates has dipped against league competition, down to 45.2. Smith has posted double-doubles in each of the past two games, and earlier this season put up 16 points and 16 rebounds against Utah in the championship game at Fort Myers, garnering tournament MVP honors. Smith's numbers would be much higher if he improved on his 53-percent shooting at the line, where he's been a team-high 126 times, more than twice as many as the next-closest Bulldog. ... Forward D.J. Jeffries is in his second season since transferring from Memphis and is 48 points shy of reaching 1,000 for his career. He's at 37-percent on the season and is tied for team-high in 3-pointers with 22, but at only 28.9 percent. If he's around the basket it won't be a bad idea to foul him, what with his 55-percent shooting from the line, which is only marginally better than Smith. ... Guard Dashawn Davis, by way of Oregon State, led the Pac-12 in assists last season at 5.2 per game. He's had at least five in only three games this season at MSU, but look no further than the Bulldogs' collective inability to hit shots (sound familiar?). Too bad Davis can't pass to himself. He's 40.7 from deep, which is by far the best on the team from the arc. ... Backup guard Shakeel Moore (8.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg), who transferred from North Carolina State three years ago, is the No. 3 scorer and basically plays starters minutes (21.9) off the bench. He had 20 points in the loss at UT and went 8-for-8 from the free-throw line. ... Wing Cameron Matthews is in his third season as a true Bulldog. He's shooting 44 percent from the floor, but is just 4-for-25 from the 3-point line (16.7 percent). ... After Jeffries and Davis, each with 22 makes from distance, Eric Reed is next with 19. He was at Southwest Missouri last season. ... Jans only brought one of his players from New Mexico State: 6-11, 265-pound forward Will McNair (3.7 ppg, 3.5), who plays about 14 minutes per. He started 27 of his 28 games for the Aggies, including both NCAA Tournament games last season. 

Numbers of Note

* .792 — Jans' winning percentage in those five seasons at NMSU, including an .831 mark in WAC play, based on a 64-13 record.

* 2 — Blocked shots needed by Castleton to move into the top five on the Florida all-time list. Castleton has 174 and with five would move past Andrew DeClercq (1991-95) at 178, and definitely is in striking distance of Joakim Noah (2004-07) at 186 and Al Horford ('04-07) at 189. He's probably not catching Kevarrius Hayes (2015-19) at 214 and definitely not Dwayne Schintzius (1986-90) at 272.

* 7 — Points needed by Castleton (1,019 points) to move past Chris Chiozza (1,025 from 2014-18) and into 53rd on the school's all-time scoring list. 

* 38 — Days since Reeves hit at least two 3-pointers in the same game (against Ohio at Tampa on Dec. 14. That was at least two hairstyles ago, but the Gators are telling Reeves to keep firing away. 

* 2017 — Last year the Gators won at "The Hump" in Starkville. It was a 57-52 slugfest, as the Gators, in winning an eighth straight and improving to 12-2 in SEC play, began life after the crushing season-ending injury to 6-11, 260-pound center John Egbunu four nights earlier at Auburn. Hayes, then a sophomore, got his first start of the season and fell a point shy of his first career double-double (9 points, 10 rebounds). 
 

Bottom Line

Has anyone looked at the schedule in the near future? As in next weekend (at No. 11 Kansas State) and the two weeks after that (at home against No. 9 Tennessee, at Kentucky, then at No. 2 Alabama)? Gators need this win.